Earth Protect Blog

Even if the United States takes no explicit action to regulate greenhouse gases, emissions of carbon dioxide and other climate-altering substances will grow slowly over the next two decades, not returning to 2005 levels until 2027, according to a new projection from the Energy Information Administration, the research branch of the Energy Department.

Carbon dioxide emissions fell by 3 percent in 2008 and 7 percent in 2009, largely because of the recession. But even as economic activity picks up, emissions will grow at a modest pace because of growing use of renewable technologies and fuels, improved energy efficiency, slower growth in demand for electricity and the growing substitution of natural gas for coal in power production, the agency reports in its annual energy outlook.

The E.I.A. projects that energy-related emissions will not reach six billion metric tons, the 2005 level, until 2027, and will then rise by an additional 5 percent by 2035, reaching 6.3 billion metric tons. United States population and energy use will rise in that period, meaning that per-capita carbon dioxide emissions will fall.

Those figures assume that Congress and future administrations take no aggressive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and that coal will remain the dominant source of electricity generation. The outcome could be different if the country moves more quickly to renewable fuel sources or if economic growth is faster or slower than projected.
The agency’s current greenhouse gas projection is in stark contrast to its 2006 report, in which it predicted that carbon dioxide emissions in the United States would rise 37 percent by 2030 from then-current levels. Today, it says there will be essentially no increase.

The agency said that the Environmental Protection Agency is still formulating regulations on emissions from coal-fired power plants and thus it is difficult to forecast the effect on power generation. But it said that the new rules will probably result in the retirement of 3 percent to 20 percent of the existing coal plant fleet, with much of that capacity replaced by power plants burning natural gas, which emits roughly half the carbon dioxide of coal.

Production of natural gas from shale using hydraulic fracturing will continue to grow rapidly, as it has for the last several years, the administration reported. It projects that production will to grow almost fourfold from 2009 to 2035, rising to nearly half of domestic natural gas production. The agency’s current estimate of shale gas production is more than twice as high as last’s year’s.

And, in a bit of good news, the E.I.A. says that imports of liquid fuels -– largely oil -– will slowly and steadily decline over the next 20 years even though consumption will rise. The import share, which peaked at 60 percent in 2005 and 2006, fell to 51 percent in 2009 and is projected to drop to 42 percent in 2035, largely because of gains in efficiency in transportation and increased production of domestic petroleum and biofuels.

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